As an "industrial mother machine", machine tools play a pivotal role in the national economy and national strategic security. According to the data of the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW), in 2021, China's metal processing machine tool output value will be 21.81 billion euros (about 166 billion yuan), accounting for only about 0.1% of GDP. As the core equipment of metal products, metal processing machine tools are directly related to the output value of the metal products industry. In 2021, the operating income of my country's metal products industry will be 4.97 trillion yuan, and metal products are widely used in various manufacturing industries including automobiles and aerospace. Industry, it can be said that the metal products industry is closely related to various manufacturing industries. In 2021, the total output value of my country's manufacturing industry is 31.4 trillion yuan, and machine tools play an important role in my country's economic development.

       Taking CNC machine tools as an example, the upstream of the industry chain is dominated by castings, sheet-welding parts, precision parts, functional components, numerical control systems, and electrical components, while the midstream is finished products of CNC machine tools, mainly including metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools and special processing machine tools. The downstream includes automobile industry, traditional machinery industry, mold industry, construction machinery, electric power equipment, rail transit, shipbuilding, aerospace, petrochemical industry, electronic information technology industry and other processing industries.

       The composition and cost of CNC machine tools

       The CNC machine tool is composed of three parts: the main body of the machine tool, the CNC system, and the transmission system. Among them, the main body of the machine tool is the "skeleton" of the CNC machine tool, accounting for about 50% of the cost; the CNC system is the "brain" of the CNC machine tool, accounting for about 30% of the cost; the transmission system as the "limbs" of the CNC machine tool directly affects the processing of the machine tool Accuracy, the cost accounts for about 20%.

       The main body of the machine tool: the "skeleton" of the CNC machine tool, accounting for 50% of the cost

       The main body of the machine tool mainly includes basic support components such as the bed and columns, the workbench and the auxiliary system. The basic support components are used to install and support other components and workpieces to withstand their weight and cutting force. The machine tool bed needs to have high static stiffness, good dynamic stiffness, reasonable force conduction, good wear resistance, reasonable temperature distribution, and stable precision Good features; the column is used to support the headstock, and the column needs to have sufficient component strength, good shock resistance and thermal deformation resistance. The machine tool workbench is the working plane for machine tool processing, and the size of the workbench determines the size of the machined parts. Auxiliary devices are supporting devices including pneumatic or hydraulic devices, chip removal devices, cooling systems, lubrication systems, protective devices, lighting, etc.

       CNC system: the "brain" of CNC machine tools, accounting for 30% of the cost

       The CNC system is the control center of the CNC machine tool, which consists of a control system, a servo system and a detection system.

       The control system is composed of numerical control device (computer), control panel, communication interface, PLC and other components. The control system uses logic circuits or system software to perform a series of compilation, calculation and logic processing on one or several NC machining programs read from the internal memory or received from the input device to generate tool motion traces, including tool motion The basic motion parameters such as feed speed, feed direction and feed displacement corresponding to the track, and the command signal is given to the servo system to guide all parts of the machine tool to perform orderly actions according to the instructions specified in the program.

       The function of the servo system is to receive the signal from the control system, convert it, amplify it, and convert it into the displacement of the machine tool table, and it is mainly composed of a drive circuit and an actuator. The function of the drive circuit is to shape, wave, and amplify the signal to drive the actuator to drive the workbench; the function of the actuator is to convert the control signal into mechanical displacement. The commonly used actuators include AC servo motor, DC pulse width speed motor and hydraulic motor etc. The servo system needs to meet the requirements of large feed speed range, high displacement accuracy, fast response speed, and strong anti-interference ability.

       The detection system consists of three parts: detection element, signal processing circuit, and comparison device. Its function is to detect the actual displacement of the worktable and convert it into an electrical signal (detection signal), and compare the command signal with the detection signal through the comparison device, and then The counter signal is given to control the actuator to drive the table to move until the detection signal is consistent with the command signal.

       Upstream Industrial Chain of Industrial Mother Machines

       From the perspective of the upstream market, the three major categories that have a greater impact on the machine tool industry are steel, CNC systems and functional components.

       In the machine tool production process, raw material costs accounted for the highest proportion of 73.9%, followed by labor, depreciation and other manufacturing costs, accounting for 11.9%, 7.9% and 6.4% respectively. In the further splitting of raw material costs, structural parts such as the base and bed processed from castings account for the largest proportion, usually around 30%-40%, and the price is greatly affected by steel; followed by CNC systems accounting for 22% ; The transmission system composed of screw guide rail and other transmission machinery and auxiliary power system accounted for 20%; the drive system composed of high-speed spindle and motor accounted for 13%; tool magazines, turrets, etc. accounted for 5%; than 2%. Usually, companies with scale advantages can enjoy discounts corresponding to the purchase scale when purchasing raw materials, which can effectively increase the company's gross profit margin.

       （1）Casting

       Castings are used for large basic parts such as machine tool bases and bed bodies. Castings are intermediate processed products. The product price is mainly based on the raw material pig iron and scrap steel plus a certain processing fee. For high-end castings, formula, material, appearance, performance, etc. will all affect the price.

       my country's overall dependence on foreign steel castings is low, and its output ranks first in the world. Most domestic machine tool companies choose to outsource non-core processes such as rough machining and semi-finishing of castings and blanks, which is a factor that is beneficial to the machine tool industry. my country's castings contain a large number of small foundries, which drags down the overall production capacity and quality of my country's foundry industry. The domestic foundry industry as a whole presents a situation of large but not strong, the industry concentration is low, and it is still in the stage of full competition. A variety of special steel materials used in high-end machine tool components still need to be imported, and the heat treatment technology of basic materials such as smelting, tempering, annealing, and quenching still needs to be improved.

       （2）Precision parts and functional parts

       Precision parts mainly include main shaft unit and screw, guide rail, bearing and other transmission components. Functional components mainly include CNC rotary table, tool magazine, manipulator, gear box, milling head, tool holder, etc. At present, the precision parts and functional parts of domestic high-end machine tools are mainly from Japan, Germany and other regions, and some are purchased from domestic enterprises or self-made.

       my country's core functional components mainly rely on external procurement. At present, domestic replaceable core components have gradually matured, and some OEMs have gradually used domestic core components to replace foreign brands. However, there is still a certain gap in the technical level. If all domestic core components are used, the precision indicators of its high-end CNC machine tools will be affected, which will affect sales. Therefore, at present, my country's key components of high-end machine tools mainly rely on imports. In 2019, the output value of my country's functional components was 1.37 billion yuan, and the subdivided structure accounted for the highest output value of CNC machine tool functional components production value of 770 million yuan, of which the by-product value of ball screws was 270 million yuan, and the by-production value of rolling guide rails and linear guide rails was 180 million yuan. The output value of electric spindle and mechanical spindle is 100 million yuan. In terms of imports, my country's total imports of functional components in 2019 reached US$1.53 billion, of which the import value of machine tool parts was US$900 million (equivalent to RMB 6.241 billion), and the import scale was 8.1 times the output value of domestic supporting parts.

       （3）CNC system

       The CNC system is used for CNC machine tools, and can also be used for system upgrades and transformations of original machine tools, mainly including control devices, drive devices and detection devices. At present, my country's large-scale machine tool manufacturers mainly purchase CNC systems from countries with mature technologies such as Japan and Germany.

       The CNC system industry is specialized in division of labor, and the market concentration is high. my country's mid-to-high-end CNC system market is occupied by foreign companies. In the current industrial chain division of the machine tool industry, CNC systems are characterized by specialization and high concentration. The global market is mainly monopolized by a few companies such as Japan's Fanuc, Mitsubishi, Germany's Siemens, and Heidenhain. At present, the CNC systems of more than 70% of domestic CNC machine tools use imported products. Among them, the three leading companies, Fanuc, Mitsubishi, and Siemens, will have a combined market share of 65% in 2020. Guangzhou CNC ranks among the top in the domestic market with its low-end lathe CNC systems. In addition, domestic machine tool end customers also have preferences in the selection of CNC systems for products, and mid-to-high-end machine tool end users are more willing to purchase machine tool products that use foreign CNC systems such as FANUC.

       （4）Sheet weldment

       Sheet welding parts are processed by cold processing technology on steel plates, aluminum plates and other metal plates to form shapes and sizes that meet the precision requirements and functional requirements, and are used for welding the fuselage to protect the inside and outside. At the same time, the tool magazine bracket, right-angle head bracket, water outlet system, chip removal system, etc. that make up the functional components also use sheet weldments.

       （5）Electrical components

       Electrical components include transformers, contactors, circuit breakers and breakers, etc.

       Midstream industry chain of industrial mother machine

       From the perspective of product distribution, China's CNC machine tools are mainly metal cutting machine tools, accounting for 53%. Metal forming machine tools, special processing machine tools, and other machine tools accounted for 29%, 17%, and 2% respectively.

       （1）Metal Cutting Machine Tool

       Metal cutting machine tools are used to process metal workpieces by cutting, grinding and other processing methods, so that the metal workpieces become machine tools of the required shape and size. Metal cutting machine tools are the most widely used, and they account for the highest proportion of CNC machine tool subdivision products. Metal cutting machine tools are classified according to their working principles and can be divided into about 11 categories including lathes, grinders, milling machines, boring machines and special machine tools. Taking Japan's output value structure in 2019 as an example, machining centers account for the highest proportion of metal cutting machine tools, followed by lathes, grinding machines, and special machine tools.

       Metal cutting machine tools are the main products in the industry, and the changes in their output reflect the development process of my country's manufacturing industry at various stages. From 1998 to 2011, domestic metal cutting machine tools showed an upward trend, with a compound growth rate of 16.70%. The output in 2011 was 886,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.18%, and the output reached its peak. Subsequently, the output in 2012-2014 remained at a high level. With the increase in demand in overseas markets and the pull of machine tool update cycles, the output of metal cutting machine tools in 2021 will be 602,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 34.98%. The output from January to September 2022 will be 342,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.92%.

       1）Lathe

       The lathe tool processes the workpiece, which is characterized by the rotation of the workpiece around its own axis. It is mainly used for processing cylindrical surfaces, turning sections, etc., and can perform drilling, reaming and other processing procedures. Lathes are the most widely used type of machine tools in machinery manufacturing and repair factories, accounting for about 20-35% of the output value of metal cutting machine tools in my country. At present, CNC lathes are the mainstream products in my country's lathe industry. Domestic CNC lathes have achieved independent production of core components such as spindles, turrets, and tailstocks. They have the strength to compete with foreign counterparts and have obvious cost-effective advantages.

       Compared with the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" and the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the average price of a single domestic CNC lathe has dropped slightly overall, and the average price is around 160,000-170,000. Under the background of current structural adjustment and product upgrading, the slight decline in the average price of domestic CNC lathes also reflects that the competition in my country's lathe industry is still relatively fierce. While the quantity and value of imported CNC lathes have declined, the average price still shows an increasing trend. my country's CNC lathes have made good progress in transformation, upgrading and structural adjustment, and are gradually replacing imported high-end CNC lathes.

       On the whole, the domestic CNC lathe market in 2019 is 10.7 billion yuan, and it has basically achieved domestic substitution. In 2019, the domestic lathe market scale is 20-25 billion yuan, of which the CNC lathe market is 10.7 billion yuan. In recent years, due to the continuous elimination of backward production capacity in China, the production and sales of low-end CNC lathes have continued to decline, and the output value of domestic CNC lathes has dropped rapidly from 14.1 billion yuan in 2011 to 6.3 billion yuan in 2019. At the same time, the import value of CNC lathes has declined relatively slowly, which has also led to a gradual increase in my country's dependence on CNC lathe imports in recent years from the perspective of output value.

       Leading foreign companies producing lathes include Yamazaki Mazak, Japan Citizen, Japan Tsugami, etc. Domestic enterprises include Tsugami (China), Shenyang Machine Tool, Qinchuan Machine Tool, Zhejiang Heidemann and other companies.

       2）Grinder

       Abrasives are used to process workpieces, and most grinding machines use grinding wheels for grinding. Grinding machines account for about 10% of the output value of metal cutting machine tools. Grinding machines can be divided into surface grinding machines, cylindrical grinding machines, internal grinding machines, roll grinding machines, centerless grinding machines, bearing grinding machines, etc. The localization rate of roll grinders, centerless grinders, and bearing grinders is relatively high, while other types of grinders basically rely on imports.

       On the whole, the domestic grinding machine market size in 2019 is about 8.5 billion yuan, the localization process of grinding machines is slow, and the dependence on imports remains high. Due to the relatively high precision requirements of grinding processing, domestic downstream customers are more dependent on imported products. From 2011 to 2019, the decline in production and sales of domestic grinding machines and imported grinding machines is basically the same. The localization process of grinding machines in my country is slow, and the dependence on imports is still maintained at around 80%. high level.

       Leading foreign companies that produce grinding machines include Germany's Kungris and Italy's Kumili. Domestic leading enterprises are Huachen Equipment, Shanghai Machine Tool, and Guizhou Xianfeng.

       3）Machining Center

       It is a highly automated CNC machine tool with a tool magazine and an automatic tool changer. Compared with other machine tools, the production efficiency and automation are greatly improved. According to the control axis classification, it can be divided into three-axis, four-axis and five-axis machining centers; according to the structure classification, it can be divided into vertical, horizontal and gantry machining centers.

       Vertical machining center: Vertical machining center refers to the machining center whose main shaft is perpendicular to the workbench. It is suitable for processing various parts such as plates, discs, molds, and small shells. With the advantages of diverse combinations, wide processing range and high batch processing efficiency, it is widely used in parts processing in various industries. Vertical machining centers are mid-to-high-end machine tools that are relatively easy to break through. In 2019, the market size of my country's vertical machining centers is about 13.4 billion yuan. The dependence on imported vertical machining centers continues to decline, and domestic substitution has basically been achieved.

       Horizontal machining center: The horizontal machining center has high technical content and is one of the landmark products of the development level of the CNC machine tool industry. Horizontal machining center refers to the machining center machine tool whose main shaft is parallel to the worktable. It is suitable for mass production of products with multiple working surfaces, complex shapes and high precision requirements. It is widely used in industries such as automobiles, aerospace, ships and power generation. There is still a gap between domestically produced horizontal machining centers and international advanced products in terms of precision, efficiency, intelligence and reliability. At present, domestic high-end horizontal machining centers mainly rely on imports. In 2019, the domestic demand for horizontal machining centers is about 8 billion yuan, of which domestic machine tools account for 23%. On the whole, in recent years, the domestic substitution of horizontal machining centers in my country has been steadily advancing, but the progress is relatively slow.

       Gantry machining center: The main shaft of the gantry machining center is perpendicular to the workbench, and the whole is a large-scale machining center with a portal structure. It is suitable for processing large workpieces and workpieces with complex shapes. It is used in aerospace, military industry, high-speed rail, molds, ships, automobiles and other fields. widely. Due to the relatively small competition in the large-scale and heavy-duty machine tool market, domestic machine tool manufacturers have turned to R&D and production of related machine tool products, making domestic products successfully realize import substitution in the low-end market. However, the demand for small and medium-sized and personalized gantry products is increasing day by day, and there is a gap between domestic enterprises in new product development and product performance. Customized, high-precision, high-speed and other high-end gantry processing centers mainly rely on imports from Europe, Japan and other regions.

       Foreign leading enterprises in the field of machining centers include Yamazaki Mazak, Demag Mori Seiki, Germany Hammer, Japan Okuma, etc. Domestic enterprises include Guosheng Zhike, Haitian Precision, Kede CNC, Genesis, etc.

       （2）Metal forming machine

       Metal forming machine tools, also known as forging equipment, refer to equipment used for metal forming and separation in forging processing. Forging equipment includes forging hammers for forming, mechanical presses, hydraulic presses, screw presses and flat forging machines, as well as auxiliary equipment such as uncoilers, straightening machines, shearing machines, and forging manipulators. Data show that China's metal forming machine tool output will reach 210,000 units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 4%. From January to May 2022, the output of metal forming machine tools in China will reach 134,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%.

       Foreign leading enterprises of metal forming machine tools include Amada of Japan, Bystronic of Switzerland, Aica of Canada, and Trumpf of Germany, etc. Domestic enterprises include Yawei, Jiangsu Jinfangyuan, Jiangsu Yangli, etc.

       （3）Special Processing Machine Tool

       A method of processing using electrical energy, electrochemical energy, light energy, and sound energy. The processing methods include: (1) Spark machining: use electric energy to process parts, and the products include EDM machine tools and EDM machine tools. Spark processing is suitable for processing any conductive material, and its characteristic is that there is no cutting force during processing and it is easy to realize automation. (2) Ultrasonic processing: It is suitable for processing different non-conductive hard and brittle materials. Since no rotation is required during processing, it is easy to process complex-shaped surfaces, etc. (3) Laser processing: mainly used for drilling and cutting, and consists of lasers, optical systems, mechanical systems, etc.

       Downstream industry chain of industrial mother machine

       From the perspective of the distribution of downstream applications of CNC machine tools, automobiles are the main downstream demand field, accounting for about 40%; followed by aerospace applications accounting for about 17%, and automotive and aerospace applications accounting for more than 50% of the total downstream industries; Mold and construction machinery are the third and fourth application fields of machine tool products, accounting for about 13% and 10% respectively.

       （1）Auto industry

       The impact of CNC machine tools on the automotive industry is mainly reflected in the field of auto parts processing, which accounts for about 70% of the total equipment value of the vehicle. The demand for machine tools in the automotive field has surpassed the demand for machine tools by vehicle manufacturers. From 2018 to 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in my country will increase from 1.26 million to 3.52 million, with a compound growth rate of 41.0%. At present, the manufacturing of new energy vehicles is transforming towards lightweight and integrated, and the integrated shaped structural parts are expected to continue to provide opportunities for the application of five-axis machine tools in high-end CNC machine tools.

       The largest downstream application of metal cutting machine tools is the automotive industry, accounting for 45%. The downstream industry of metal cutting machine tools includes automobiles, machinery, military industry and others. The automobile industry is the largest downstream application, and the proportion of automobiles in 2020 will reach 45%. The downstream applications of CNC metal cutting machine tools are relatively scattered. In 2020, the automotive industry will account for 30%. General machinery and 3C electronics are also important downstream applications.

       As the largest downstream application of machine tools, the automotive industry has a high correlation with the metal cutting machine tool industry. The automotive industry needs to mass-produce high-precision and complex workpieces, such as braking systems and power systems, which cannot be separated from the processing of precision machine tools. Engine processing requires high-efficiency, high-performance, special-purpose CNC machine tools and flexible production lines; spare parts processing requires the participation of equipment such as CNC lathes, vertical and horizontal machining centers, and CNC high-efficiency grinders. New energy vehicles make "motor, battery, and electronic control" a new application scenario for machine tools.

       （2）Construction machinery

       The construction machinery industry is also an important downstream industry of machine tools. From 2016 to 2020, the sales volume of my country's construction machinery increased from 120,000 units to 412,000 units, with a compound growth rate of 36.0%; market sales increased from 10.1 billion US dollars to 34.2 billion US dollars, with a compound growth rate of 35.7%. The rapid growth of my country's construction machinery market is mainly driven by factors such as the expansion of infrastructure construction, the accelerated growth of real estate investment, and the recovery of demand for large-scale mine production.

       （3）Aviation sector

       The main market for high-end CNC machine tools is the military aircraft and civil aircraft markets. According to the "Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Market Forecast Annual Report (2020-2039)", it is estimated that by 2039, the average annual growth rate of my country's GDP will be about 4.3%, the average annual growth rate of the fleet will be about 4.1%, and the average annual growth rate of passenger turnover will be about 4.3%. It is estimated that my country will deliver 8,725 passenger planes, and passenger turnover will reach 4.1 trillion kilometers, accounting for about one-fifth of the world. The manufacturing of complete aircraft has the driving effect of the industrial chain and is an important opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of the domestic manufacturing industry. Aerospace is a high-end manufacturing field. Typical complex curved surface parts represented by impeller blades must be processed by high-end five-axis linkage machine tools. Therefore, the rapid development of the aircraft industry has put forward a strong demand for the localization of high-end equipment to replace imported A larger market space will become an important market growth point for domestic machine tool companies. At the same time, the industrial cluster effect will accelerate the migration of the global aviation manufacturing industry to my country. In the future, the aviation after-sales market, such as maintenance support and engineering services, with a market space of more than 2.7 trillion yuan, will also be opened to domestic enterprises, which will bring new markets and opportunities.

Source: Report Institute, Huibo Information, Xianji.com

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